2010 TOP TEN NFL WIDE RECEIVERS

2009 Top 10 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver I’m Concerned About In 2010

My first order of business was to look back, beginning in 2003 and progressing to 2009, to find out how many wide receivers were able to repeat as top ten fantasy football receivers the following year.  On average, only 3.6 wide receivers are able to repeat top ten numbers the next year.   Five 2008 top ten receivers were able to repeat in 2009.  But there’s something surprising about that number.  It represents the largest number to repeat going all the way back to 2003.  Only three NFL wide receivers delivered top 10 stats from 2007-09. They were Larry Fitzgerald (ARI), Wes Welker (NEP), and Brandon Marshall (DEN).  Not one of the current top ten has ever been on top of the fantasy charts for four years in a row.

Andre Johnson (HOU) is enjoying his longest streak in seven years.  He now has two top ten years in a row 2008-09, with only three top ten’s total in seven years.

Randy Moss (NEP) finished second among the top ten wide receivers in 2009.  Moss has not had back to back top ten finishes dating back seven years.

Reggie Wayne finished 3rd among fantasy football wide receivers in 2009. The only time Reggie put together back to back top ten seasons was 2006 (2^nd) and 2007 (3^rd).

So, who has put together the most consecutive top ten finishes in the last seven years?  Look no further than Cincinnati Bengals, Chad Ochocinco.  He is the only wide receiver to string five straight top ten seasons from 2003-07, while both Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts, and Tory Holt, St Louis Rams, came close putting together four straight top ten seasons 2005-08.  Ochocinco finished 49^th in 08 and 12^th in 09.

Now, if I drop half of the 2009 class, I’ll begin by eliminating Miles Austin (DAL) and Steve Smith (NYG).  Both are newcomers to the top ten club and they came out of nowhere.  They will exit just as quickly.  Austin will slow down because teams will be more prepared for him. His previous best ranking was 85th in 2008 and 153rd in 2007.  I see Austin coming back to earth in 2010 finishing somewhere in the 15-30 range.  Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks will see more targets in 2010, cutting Steve Smiths numbers and dropping him out of the top 10.  Prior to 2009 Smith finished 56th in 2008 and 151st in 2007.  There were several good wide receivers with subpar seasons in 09.  I expect them to bounce back and push both Austin and Smith down the ranks.  But these aren’t the only NFL wide receivers I expect to drop out of the top ten.

Wes Welker won’t see the top ten in 2010 because of knee (ACL / MCL) and shoulder (torn rotator cuff) injuries.  The knee represents his biggest problem.  Some believe he won’t play until Thanksgiving.  I don’t expect to see Wes Welker in the top ten for an extended period of years.  He has been over worked the last two years.  I believe we have seen the best of Wes.

That makes three wide receivers out and two more to eliminate to get to five.  I’m going to give you three more.  DeSean Jackson will miss the top ten in 2010 as will Roddy White.  Jackson will find catches and touchdowns much tougher to get this year.   Donovan McNabb is gone and that will hurt DeSeans numbers.  Other Eagle wide-outs will step up to be a bigger part of the air attack.  I think Roddy White will have another year similar to his 2009 season, but that won’t be good enough to make the top ten.

Do you think this is extreme?  I’m not finished yet.  There are five wide receivers left, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Marshall who were all in the top ten in 09.  I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict there will only be four of those wide receivers repeat as members of the top ten in 2010.

This is my bold prediction.  Larry Fitzgerald will not be a top ten wide receiver this year.  Big changes have hit the Arizona Cardinals.  Quarterback Kurt Warner is gone, wide receiver Anquan Blodin is gone, and Matt Leinart assumes the quarterback position. Larry Fitzgerald has played six NFL seasons in Arizona.  Of those six seasons, Kurt Warner was the quarterback during the four years that Fitzgerald finished among the top ten wide receivers (05, 07, 08, and 09).  The only two years Fitz didn’t make the top ten? When Matt Leinart shared the quarterback duties with Warner (2004 28^th and 2006 24^th).  Let’s not forget Arizona is planning to run the ball more.  Chris Wells will see a lot of action for the Cardinals this year as they try to cover their losses.

Fantasy RoundTable opinions: Wide Receiver Bust

Article provided by: J. Piatt
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