2009's Top 10 RB that I just don't have a good feeling about.
I thought about two players as possibilities for this honor, Ricky Williams (Dolphins) and Thomas Jones (Chiefs). In the end, I feel there are more negatives working against Thomas Jones this year and he will not repeat as a top 10 running back. Chiefs GM Scott Pioli recently said the offseason moves to acquire older players is an effort to help the young players grow. In my opinion, the Chiefs will look to build on the experience Jamaal Charles received in 2009 with Thomas Jones teaching the younger back some of the finer points of the rushing game. Another thing hurting Jones this year is the lack of a good offensive line in Kansas City. In 2009 Jones ran behind one of the best, if not the best, offensive lines in the NFL. Quarterback Matt Cassel and his supporting cast of receivers must improve their game to keep defenses from stacking the line of scrimmage against the run. If the Chiefs play from behind this season like they did last year, the running game will suffer. There’s no doubting the ability of the 32 year old Jones, but he like many other over 30 year old players will hit the wall that has stopped so many top fantasy football point producing running backs, and it seems to happen all at once. Let’s take a look to see how T.J. performed through the years. After being drafted by the Arizona Cardinals in 2000, it took Thomas until 2004 to crack the top 30 running backs, finishing #18 that year. Then from 2005, when he finished #9 among running backs, he fell to #14 in 2006 and #24 in 2007. I believe Jones will experience another downturn after hitting a peak in 2008 when he ranked #3. Sure he finished #9 in 2009, but like I said, he had a great line in front of him and the #9 represents a slide from #3 in 08. Much like Thomas Jones, when he ranked #18 in his first meaningful fantasy football point scoring season, Jamaal Charles finished #19 in 2009. Jones jumped to #9 the following year and we expect Jamaal Charles to make a similar jump this year. Although Thomas Jones has averaged 241 carries over nine years I don’t expect him to get that many carries in 2010. Last year all of the Kansas City running backs combined for 236 carries. Even if you figure 332 carries (T.J.’s carries in 2009, his most ever in a season) split between Jones and Charles (50% / 50%) that would give him 166 carries and 664 yards if you allow him 4.0 yards per carry (his 9 year average). His production then drops to less than his 2004 season when he finished #18 among running backs. There were seven running backs that saw action for the Chiefs in 09. Jamaal Charles and Javarris Williams (R) were the youngest KC running backs at 23 years old and Jackie Battle was the oldest at 26 years. Don’t look beyond Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones if you plan to add any Kansas City running backs. Jamaal Charles led all KC backs with 190 carries in 2009, then came Tim Castille 14 for 55 yards, Dantrell Savage 10 for 45 yards, Mike Cox 3 for 5 and 1 score, Kolby Smith 15 for 33 yards, Jackie Battle 7 for 21 yards, and lastly, Javarris Williams (R) nothing. For all the above reasons, I don’t think Thomas Jones will be a top 10 running back in 2010. Fantasy RoundTable opinions: 2009 Top 10 running back I'm concerned about in 2010 Article provided by: J. PiattFanaticFantasyFootball.com LLC
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