Jeremy Maclin Wide Receiver vs Mike Williams Wide Receiver

Jeremy Maclin WR Eagles vs Mike Williams WR Buccaneers

2011 Jeremy Maclin Philadelphia Eagles vs. Mike Williams Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Do you want Jeremy Maclin or Mike Williams on your fantasy football roster in 2011?  That’s a good question and I think we can sift through some stats to help you find your answer.  One option is to flip a coin.  The other is to research the players.

First of all, take a look at this table to see how evenly both players played in 2010.  I’m only comparing receiving stats because neither receiver played a significant role in the rushing game, seeing how Maclin had 3 carries and Williams had zero.

2010 Season	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns	Targets
Maclin PHI	70	964	10	114
Williams TBB	65	964	11	122

Keep in mind that Jeremy Maclin was playing in the NFL for the second year of his career, while Mike Williams was playing his rookie season with the Buccaneers. In 2009, Maclin compiled 55 receptions, 762 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns, while being targeted 90 times. The stats for 2010 show pretty much a wash between the two wide receivers.

Going into the 2011 season, it’s a good idea to know who each receiver will compete against among his own teammates. How many targets can he expect to be thrown his way? Is he a good hands man when he is targeted? How many touchdowns can we expect him to haul in via the aerial attack? Tampa Bay likes to run a balanced attack.  During the 2010 season the pass/rush split for the Buccaneers was 51%/49% respectively.  I expect those numbers to hold true in 2011.  The Eagles, coached by HC Andy Reid, tend throw more out of design than necessity, they average 57% pass to 43% run. I expect the Eagles ratio to be about the same in 2011.

 The next two tables show the top three wide receivers from each team, the top tight end, and the top running back out of the back field for each team in 2010. I looked at the number of receptions each player received and what percent of the total receptions that number represented.  Yards, touchdowns, and targets were calculated in the same manner.  It’s good to know how each coach tends to divide his aerial attack before you head off to your draft.

Philadelphia Eagles

2010 Season	Rec,  % of Tot	Yds, % Tot Yds	TDs, % Tot Tds	Targets
WR Jeremy Maclin	70 = 20%	964 = 23%	10 = 36%	114 = 20%
WR DeSean Jackson	47 = 14%	1056 = 25%	6 = 21%	95 = 17%
WR Jason Avant	51 = 15%	573 = 14%	1 = 04%	74 = 13%
TE Brent Celek	42 = 12%	511 = 12%	4 = 14%	80 = 14%
RB LeSean McCoy	78 = 22%	592 = 14%	2 = 07%	90 = 16%
All Others	60 = 17%	519 = 12%	5 = 18%	108 = 20%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2010 Season	Rec, % of Tot	Yds, % Tot Yds	TDs, % Tot Tds	Targets
WR Mike Williams	65 = 21%	964 = 29%	11 = 42%	122 = 25%
WR Arrelious Benn	25 = 08%	395 = 12%	2 = 08%	38  = 08%
WR Mike Spurlock	17 = 06%	250 = 07%	2 = 08%	33 = 07%
TE Kellen Winslow	63 = 21%	702 = 20%	5 = 19%	95 = 19%
RB Carnell Williams	46 = 15%	355 = 11%	1 = 04%	64 = 13%
All Others	90 = 29%	695 = 21%	5 = 19%	142 = 28 %

Looking at those numbers and considering the cast of players on each team, I look for both players to increase their production a little more in 2011, but nothing earth-shattering.

 Mike Vick has a full year of guiding the Eagles offense under his belt, making it a pretty good bet that he'll be lethal throwing to all of his weapons.  Jeremy Maclin is entering his third year as a pro, a year when many young wide receivers start taking their game up another notch or two. Maclin could produce some big numbers in 2011 and help win a fantasy football championship for his owners.

Josh Freeman didn’t have a lot of good options at wide receiver in 2010, but he did develope good chemistry with rookie wide receiver, Mike Williams.  Fellow rookie wide receiver, Arrelious Benn, was drafted ahead of Williams during the 2010 NFL Draft, but he was bothered by knee problems that hampered his development and required surgery in December.  All reports coming out of Tampathis year say Benn is way ahead of schedule in his rehab and he will be ready if and when training camps open for the 2011 season.  I look for Benn to have a better season but I don’t think it will be at the expense of Mike Williams.  I project Williams to have a better season in 2011 even with Arrelious Benn seeing more action in the starting lineup.  Unlike Michael Vick, Josh Freeman doesn’t have as many mouths to feed in Tampa Bay via the air attack, bolstering my belief that Williams could very well jump into the group of top 10 wide receivers this year.

My task this week is to choose which wide receiver I would draft in a keeper league format.  If I’m on the clock in my live draft, and both Maclin and Williams are available, but the one I don’t take won’t make it back to me, I’ll select Mike Williams of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Both players are very good prospects for any fantasy team owner.  I personally like Mike Williams’ size and speed. I see a lot of fantasy football opportunity in the city by the bay.

Projections

2011 Season	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns	Targets
Maclin PHI	80 - 85	1000 – 1100	9 - 11	125 - 135
Williams TBB	80 - 85	1050 – 1200	10 - 12	130 - 145

See what other Roundtable members wrote

Article provided by: Jim Piatt
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