JERMICHAEL FINLEY GREEN BAY PACKERS

Will tight end Jermichael Finley be a Cheesehead or a Deadhead in 2010?

Jermichael Finley
Tight End 6’5”, 247 lbs

As is the case with most rookies, Jermichael Finley’s 2008 season was uneventful by NFL and fantasy football standards. During the 2008 season he was active on special teams, targeted with nine passes, caught 4 balls for 45 yards, and had no touchdowns.

With the 2009 season in the books, we believe there’s going to be a changing of the guard in Cheeseville. Jermichael Finley heads into the 2010 season as the #1 tight end in Green Bay. He didn’t start fast in 09 but the Packers showed in week two against the Bengals that they wanted to get the ball in Finley’s hands, targeting him 7 times. He responded by grabbing 4 for 56 yards. In week four he was targeted 7 times again and caught 6 balls for 128 yards and a score against the Vikings. That was the game fantasy football players saw his potential and started adding him to their rosters. His final numbers looked like this through 16 weeks of action. He was targeted 66 times. That’s 16 more targets than Donald Lee, the teams #1 TE in 08. Of those 66 targets, Finley caught 51. At the same time Donald Lee’s numbers dropped again, the second time since 2007 when he had his best year as a pro.

During 2009, in only thirteen games, Finley had 51 receptions for 642 yards (12.3 yds. per catch) and 4 TDs. He missed three weeks 8-10 due to injuries. During the last six weeks Jermichael was targeted 45 times for 7.5 per game, while soon to be 30 year old, Donald Lee was looked to only 15 times. Spencer Havner got some playing time during Finley’s three week absence. Havner was targeted 10 times, caught 7 for 23 yards, and scored 4 touchdowns. Those stats will go to Finley this year.

Finley finished 2009 among the top 10 tight ends in fantasy football and #12 in the NFL. We expect another top 10 finish in 2010. Jermichael Finley will be the Packers #1 tight end. Aaron Rodgers is confident in Finley’s ability to get open and hang onto the ball.  He has good hands and he’s a threat to break a long run for a touchdown. Look for Finley to get the lion’s share of tight end targets this year. The potential is there for Finley to be targeted 90-100 times with 70-75 receptions, but the Packers spread the ball round and I think 80-90 targets and 65-70 receptions are more realistic. Donald Driver turned 35 years old February 2 and his production has dipped a little each year since 2006. We look for Driver and Finley to have almost equal numbers in 2010. Driver’s stats will dip a little more as Finley receives more targets from Aaron Rodgers.

In 2010 the Packers play only 6 games against playoff teams from 2009.  Two of those games are against their division rival Minnesota Vikings #20 ranked pass defense.  Green Bay will play 8 games against teams ranking among the top 16 in pass defense, and 8 games versus teams ranking among the 16 worst pass defenses, including division rival Detroit Lions twice.

Our line on Finley for 2010 looks like this: 95 targets, 69 receptions, 840 yards, and 7-9 touchdowns.  That would place him in a group with #4 Vernon Davis, #5 Brent Celek, #6 Tony Gonzalez, and #7 Kellen Winslow.

Fantasy RoundTable opinions: Jermichael Finley

Article provided by: J. Piatt
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