RUNNING BACK SHONN GREENE VERSUS RUNNING BACK LEGARRETTE BLOUNT

Have you ever heard the old song that has a verse that says, “I’m going to get on my pony and ride”?  Today I’m going to take a look at a couple young NFL players you might want to consider riding this year in your fantasy football league.  LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Shonn Greene, New York Jets, are the targets of my comparison.

Shonn Green
Shonn will enter his third season as a Jet running back.  Like Blount, Shonn Greene can run the rock with authority.  Fantasy football players, who drafted Greene in 2009, are waiting for him to be given the reigns to the running back position.  During Greene’s first two years in the league he has played second fiddle to a couple of pretty good running backs, Thomas Jones (now in KC), and x-San Diego Super Star, LaDainian Tomlinson.  As a rookie, Greene finished 61st among all running backs in fantasy points while Thomas Jones ran wild in Rex Ryan’s system. Jones finished 9th among all running backs and he scored 295 fantasy points.  After that spectacular 2009 season, Rex rewarded Jones by trading him to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2010. Ryan opted to bring in LaDainian Tomlinson and make him the number one running back for the Jets in 2010.  The affect was, LaDainian improved from being the 20th ranked running back in his last year as a Charger, to being the 15th ranked running back in his first year as a Jet.  Even though Greene played second fiddle to Jones and Tomlinson, he raised his production from 61st in 09 to 36th in 2010.  Coach Ryan has given Shonn Greene the opportunity to play behind two very good running backs and learn what it takes to be a top running back in the NFL.  LaDainian will turn 32 years old in June.  I’m not going to say Tomlinson is finished but, what I will say is, Shonn Greene will carry the ball more than Tomlinson in 2011.  As a rookie, Greene saw Thomas Jones get 331 carries to his 108.  That gap shrank in 2010 with Tomlinson carrying the ball 219 times to Greene’s 185.  Greene was only 34 carries away from being the lead runner.  If Coach Ryan continues according to the established pattern, you should see Shonn Greene take over as, Big Jet, in the running game this year.  Tomlinson will still see significant action as a rusher but more importantly as a receiver out of the backfield, limiting Greene’s total value.  Look for Greene to carry the rock somewhere in the vicinity of 225 - 240 times for 950 – 1050 yards and 4 – 6 scores.  That would place Greene ahead of Tomlinson’s rushing stats in 2010, but the lack of use in the aerial game will hold Greene back statistically compared to Tomlinson.  LT will dip down the ranks in 2011 but Greene will not progress higher than 25th to 30th among all running backs.  Greene's years as a high tier two and low tier one running back will come in 2012 and beyond.

LeGarrette Blount
Blount is a big strong running back and he exploded onto the scene in 2010 as a rookie out of the University of Oregon.  Veteran running backs Cadillac Williams (29 years old) and Earnest Graham (31 years old) clearly are not the future for the Buccaneers.  Coach Morris began using LeGarrette Blount during week three action in 2010. At years end Blount was the top rusher on the team running the ball 201 times for 1007 yards and 6 touchdowns in only 13 games.  RB Cadillac Williams, with 125 carries and QB Josh Freeman with 68 carries were the main rushers behind Blount.  LeGarrette didn’t see much action as a receiver out of the backfield due to Cadillac Williams presence in the receiving game.  Look for HC Morris to work Blount into the receiving game more as he gains experience in the NFL.  There isn’t much stopping Blount from seizing the RB position as his own at this time.  Drafting 20th in the 2011 NFL Draft, which starts Thursday night at 8:00 PM ET on the NFL Channel, expect Tampa Bay to draft players to help them along the offensive line and defensive players to help them stop the high octane New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons. Both are Buccaneer rivals in the NFC South Division.  The Buccaneers will settle on Blount as their lead running back and I expect him to carry the ball 250-270 times this year. He should also be busier at the goal line scoring anywhere from 9 - 12 touchdowns.  As for the future, I think it’s bright for Blount in Tampa Bay and I think your fantasy football team can benefit by adding him to your roster.  He isn’t a RB1 yet, but he can be a good RB3 with some RB2 type games sprinkled in as well as a RB1 game along the way.  Blount finished 29th among all fantasy running backs in 2010. Look for him to move up somewhere just inside or outside the top 20 in 2011.  Let’s say 18-22 would be about right for his second year.

In 2010 both players finished among the tier three running backs, being those finishing 25th – 36th in points produced from the running back position.  That placed LeGarrette Blount 93rd overall with 177 points and Shonn Greene finished 112th overall with 156 points.  If Blount improves his point production, as I predict he will, to finish among the top 18 – 22 running backs, he could produce 225–240 fantasy points in 2011 and rank somewhere between 53rd and 62nd overall among all players at any position.  If Shonn Greene can boost his production a little more this year and get to that 22 – 25 group of running backs, he could finish overall with around 200 – 225 fantasy points with an overall rank of 62nd to 72nd among all players.

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Article provided by: Jim Piatt
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