JOHN CARLSON TIGHT END SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

2010 Player That Didn’t Meet My Expectations But I’m High On Him In 2011

This week I looked at players I ranked among the top 15 at his position in 2010, only to be disappointed by his performance. This is a player I’m still high on for the 2011 season.  I didn’t give consideration to any player who disappointed due to injuries, such as RB DeAngelo Williams CAR and RB Ryan Matthews SDC.

The 2010 player that turned out to be the biggest disappointment among my rankings was Tight End John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks.  I ranked Carlson just outside my top ten at number eleven heading into 2010.  He finished as the 32nd best tight end in the National Football League.  Now that was a major disappointment.

I decided to look at, not only John Carlson, but all of the skill positions to see what might have happened to keep Carlson so far down the final point production list among tight ends.

John came into the league during the 2008 NFL Draft.  He got off to a great start during his rookie season.  He was targeted 80 times, caught 55 of them for 627 yards, and scored 5 touchdowns.  Seneca Wallace and Matt Hasselbeck split time at quarterback with Wallace playing in one more game than Hasselbeck.  That year the Seahawks top quarterback (Hasselbeck) finished 36th among all fantasy quarterbacks and his backup, Seneca Wallace, finished 32nd.  The wide receivers looked more like clowns under the Big Top.  They were too old (Bobby Engram, the top WR, finished 74th among all fantasy football receivers), too drunk (Koren Robinson, 77th at his position), or injured (Deon Branch, 83rd, signed to be a #1 receiver) and Nate Burleson, 131st among all fantasy wide receivers.  Like the quarterbacks and wide receivers, the running backs were a sorry bunch.  The final tally showed how unproductive the running game was.  On average the Seahawk running backs ranked 58th among all backs.  Julius Jones ended the year as the team’s top back, but he was only 45th among all running backs, while the number two man in the backfield, Maurice Morris, finished 51st.  If that play was supposed to be a symphony, it lacked harmony!  All the chaos among the regulars created a situation where the quarterbacks knew they couldn’t depend on the running game or the aerial attack. But they did find one player they could depend on, John Carlson, their rookie tight end, was able to slither around and through opposing defenses with ease.  Defending teams didn’t know Carlson, so they wasted their time shutting down the lackluster receivers and running backs.  Only after the rookie tight end put together a good season, posting 153.30 fantasy points, ranking him 8th among all tight ends, did defenses realize they had to defend Carlson.

In 2009 changes came to Seattle and they were positive.  Matt Hasselbeck improved his performance and moved up from being the 36th ranked quarterback to being 21st among all quarterbacks.  Wide receiver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, came to the team via free-agency, staked his claim to being the top receiver on the team by finishing 26th among all wide receivers.  His influence must have been positive for Nate Burleson, seeing that Burleson jumped from being the 131st ranked wide receiver in 2008 to being the 32nd ranked receiver in 2009.  Overall the Seahawk receivers improved their rank from 108th as a group to 75th.  The running game showed some promise too, as Justin Forsett, in his 2nd year, and Julius Jones finished 35th and 37th respectively, improving the running game from an average rank of 58th to 36th.  How did the overall improvement at those three positions affect John Carlson’s numbers in 2009?  You might think there wasn’t much left for him with Housh, Burleson, and Forsett stepping up their individual games, but you would be wrong.  Carlson dropped from 8th to 13th among all tight ends but still received 83 targets (+ 3), had 51 receptions (- 4), scored 7 touchdowns (+2), and scored 148.50 fantasy points (-4.8).  I still like Carlson’s production as a top tight end at this time.

Going into the 2010 season I looked at John Carlson as my 11th ranked tight end.  Matt Hasselbeck was reported to be feeling better than he had felt in a long time.  Seneca Wallace was shipped to the Cleveland Browns and quarterback Charlie Whitehurst was brought in from the San Diego Chargers by new HC Pete Carroll.  T.J. Houshmandzadeh packed his talents and flew off to the Baltimore Ravens, opening the door for the new coach to bring in one of his old college players, wide receiver Mike Williams.  Running back Justin Forsett was set to be the lead runner in his third year with the team.  It looked like things were set for Carlson to have another good year.  As we all know now, it didn’t happen.  Carlson plunged into darkness.  Mike Williams disappointed as the team’s top receiver, mostly due to his injuries.  None of the remaining wide receivers picked up the slack.  Justin Forsett struggled to be the teams’ top running back early in the season, so much so that the Seahawks made a trade with the Buffalo Bills to bring in fourth year running back, Marshawn Lynch.  Carlson ended the season having only 58 targets due to the offensive line not being able to protect the quarterback.  That represented 25 fewer targets than the year before.  His receptions dropped from 55 (2008) and 51 (2009) to only 31 in 2010.  His yardage numbers were cut in half and he only caught 1 touchdown all year.

In 2011 I think John Carlson will, once again, put up statistics placing him among the top 15 tight ends in the NFL.  The positives I’m looking at in 2011 include the fact that the Seahawks play in the weak NFL West Division, they made the playoffs under their new coach, implementing a new system in his first year, and in their NFL playoff first round game they were able to knock off the 2009 Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints.  The Seahawks ended the 2010 season as the highest scoring team in the West Division.  If Marshawn Lynch can improve on his #28 running back performance, advancing to perform among the top 15 or 20 running backs, it will open up the passing game.  Mike Williams showed he can make the play if he is healthy.  I expect both RB Lynch and WR Williams to improve in 2011, opening the door for John Carlson to jump back into fantasy football prominence once again.

2011 PROJECTION

Tight End	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
John Carlson	75 – 80	50 – 55	600 – 675	5 - 8

See what other roundtable participants wrote

Article provided by: Jim Piatt
FanaticFantasyFootball.com LLC
5795 S. Sandhill Rd., Suite F
Las Vegas, NV 89120
©2010 FanaticFantasyFootball.com LLC, all rights reserved