LEGARRETTE BLOUNT RUNNING BACK TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

2011 RB Sleeper

LeGarrette Blount
Running Back, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
From a Dynasty League Point of View
To qualify for our sleeper pick, this running back could not have been among the top 25 RB’s in 2010

There are actually several good candidates who fit into this category. I have two solid candidates in Shonn Green RB NYJ and LeGarrette Blount RB TBB. I’m thinking a lot of people will be going with Shonn Green since the word out of the Jets office is that Green will be “the man” this year. LT will be more of a third down back. So I’m going to look at someone others might overlook, LeGarrette Blount, RB Tampa Bay.

By now, if you’re a football fan, you already know about Blount’s punch while attending the University of Oregon. That punch probably cost him a chance to be drafted during the 2010 NFL Draft. The Tennessee Titans took a chance and signed him as an undrafted free-agent. That didn’t work out and Blount found himself on the outside looking in again. It wasn’t long before Tampa Bay Head Coach, Raheem Morris, gave Blount a call and signed him.

The Buccaneers went into the 2010 season hurting at the running back position. Their top back was Corvair Williams (no longer a Cadillac) doing the best he could on two gimpy knees and Earnest Graham, still hobbling from injuries suffered in 2008 and 2009. Kareem Huggins was brought up from the practice squad to help strengthen the position, but only managed three games before suffering an injury that saw him placed on injured reserve. The stars seemed to be aligning for LeGarrette Blount to show what he could do as a rookie.

Blount went on to lead all Tampa Bay rushers. He carried the ball 201 times, for 1007 yards (5.0 avg) and 6 rushing touchdowns. He was targeted 6 times in the receiving game and hauled in 5 of them. His closest competition was Carnell Williams with 125 attempts for 437 yards (3.5 avg) and 2 rushing touchdowns. Williams’s highest value was in the receiving game where he caught 46 of 64 receiving targets for 355 yards and 1 TD. Williams only had two games where he carried more than 20 times, the first two games of the season. After that, his best effort was two games where he had 11 and 10 carries during weeks 5 and 6 respectively. After week six, Williams only received single digit carries, with 8 being the high. Carnell didn’t record a single 100 yard game in 2010, even when combining his rushing and receiving yards.

LeGarrette basically waited in the wings during the first six weeks of last season. Carnell was still trying to be the Buccaneers Cadillac. Beginning in week seven, Coach Morris decided to see what his 247 pound, rookie running back toy, could do. Blount got 11 totes that game and ran for 72 yards (a 6.5 average per). Not bad for the rookie. Blount went on, over the next nine games, to rack up four games of over 100 yards (one of them for 164 yards). He scored 6 rushing touchdowns.

I think LeGarrette Blount has a lot of positive things going in his favor as he heads into his second year as a Buccaneer. There is no doubt in my mind that the reason the Buccaneers came close to making the 2010 playoffs was, they found a running back that opposing teams had to respect. Opposing defenses couldn’t focus on pressuring QB Josh Freeman and shutting down the Tampa Bay wide receivers. Tampa Bays' passing game is good enough to keep opposing defenses from loading the box to stop the run.

HC Raheem Morris is the type of coach who wants to have a balanced attack. Last year his team passed 53% of the time and ran the ball 47% of the time. I was interested in how Blount’s presence might have affected the play calling, so I took a look at the first five games on the Buccaneer’s schedule, when Blount received 10 total carries (only 8% of the total rushes) and Carnell was the top back. In those games, Tampa Bay passed 58% of the time and ran the ball 42% of the time. Okay, so what were the numbers during the final ten games? Games where LeGarrette Blount had taken over the lead back role. The number of rushes increased from 42% during the first five games to 49% over the last ten games. That represented a 7% increase in the running game and more importantly showed the coaching staff trusted LeGarrette Blount with the rock. Look for that confidence to grow in 2011 and expect Blount to post some nice numbers. He received 80% of the carries over the last 10 weeks of 2010. If he continues that pace in 2011 he would end up with 362 carries. I expect him to be more around the 280-290 carry range, 1400-1450 yards, with 10 TD’s in 2011. Last year LaDainian Tomlinson finished the fantasy football season as the 15th ranked running back with 914 rushing yards, 368 receiving yards (1282 total) and 6 touchdowns. LeGarrette Blount will top those numbers and be among the top 15 running backs in the NFL in 2011. I only play in keeper leagues and I base my value on Blount being around for the long run, but I would feel perfectly safe drafting LeGarrette Blount as my number two running back in any league format this year. Look for Blount and Shonn Greene both to have similar seasons with Greene costing you a much higher draft pick.

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Article provided by: J. Piatt
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